The Farm Bill added counter-cyclical payments that thwarted the market price cycle as part of a low-cost „safety net.“ Countercyclical payments for a product are only spent if the actual price of a product is below the target price of the product. No countercyclical payment is available for the other oleo-oleo-oleo-oléo-oléo-oleoric seeds, as the sum of their national loan rate and direct payment rate is equal to or greater than their target price. The financial cycle covers systematic models in the financial system, such as credit growth and asset prices. The essence of cyclical behavior is that ups and downs occur with a regulation frequency, and the rate of change is highest in the middle (average) state. For most economic variables, such behavior is not observed, as it is either i) random walks that move freely up and down, such as stock prices or (ii) reversion of the average value, so that the direction of change always goes in the direction of the equilibrium state, such as inflation or interest rates. We are now in a position to study the cyclical behaviour of real wages. Tables 2 and 3 provide an overview of the cyclicality of six different measures for real wages. For each measure of real wages, we re-evaluate the wage series calculated to an indicator of the economic cycle (and a temporal trend and a constant). Table 2 examines the real wage situation with respect to the unemployment rate filtered by HP. We use HP`s filtered unemployment rate and not the unemployment rate in altitude levels, because the average unemployment rate over the period for NLSY.ac Therefore, the reported coefficients are half elasticities: the percentage change of a measure of real wages in response to an unemployment gap of one percentage point relative to its trend. The sample for columns 1 to 5 consists of 25 data points from 1979 to 2012 that cause odd years to fall between 1994 and 2012 (see section 3.2). To build the UCL, we need to place wages for odd years between 1994 and 2012.

The end-user cost series itself ends in 2007, as we need seven subsequent salary observations to calculate the value of UCL for T year (for more details, see section 3.2). The USDA Direct and Countercyclical Payment Program (PCD) provides payments to eligible producers on farms reported for harvest years 2002 to 2007. There are two types of DCP payments: direct payments and counter-cyclical payments.